What should the incoming Labor Government do in relation to the 2030 emissions reduction target?
Labor ran on a target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent by 2030. This was slightly lower than the 45 per cent target the party took to the 2019 election but higher than the Coalition’s 2030 target.
Independent Teal candidates Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniels ran on a target of 60 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 and want these targets legislated. Other Teals called for targets to be brought into line with the UN’s recommendation to halve emissions by 2030.
The Greens Party supports a reduction of 75% in emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2035.
2030 targets of Australia’s strategic allies and trading partners are:
- The US: 50-52% cut (on 2005 levels)
- The UK: 68% cut (on 1990 levels)
- The EU: 55% cut (on 1990 levels)
- Japan: 46% cut (on 2005 levels)
Australian states and territories with 2030 targets are:
- Tasmania: already net zero
- ACT: 65-75%
- SA: More than 50%
- NSW: 50%
- VIC: 45-50%
- QLD: 30%
The Business Council of Australia is calling for a 46-50% national target by 2030 and the Australian Industry Group a 50% cut by 2030.
During the election campaign, Labor ruled out any chance its 43% 2030 climate target could be pushed higher if it is forced to negotiate with other parties to form government at the next election. Chris Bowen stated, “That’s our target. That’s what we’ll implement and legislate”.
The election showed there has been a significant shift in the attitude of the electorate on the importance of action on climate change. This can be attributed to several factors:
- The much-publicised role of science in informing the public policy response to the Covid 19 public health crisis. If science led the public policy response to the Covid crisis, ought it not also lead the response to the climate crisis?
- The reframing of the climate change debate so that it is understood as not just an environmental issue but as an efficiency, jobs and health issue as well. (It is an efficiency issue because if we do not act sooner, it will cost us more later. It is a jobs issue because of the immense potential to create new green jobs. It is a health issue because health impacts related to a warming planet, include heat stroke, asthma, allergies, the spread of infectious diseases (including coronaviruses);
- The direct experience many Australians have now suffered from extreme weather events caused or aggravated by climate change-drought, bushfires, and floods.
- The increased understanding, even in coal communities, that reliance on coal as a fossil fuel will inevitably reduce due to commercial and international factors so that the debate must be about just transition and efforts to ensure that, as far as practicable, new green jobs should be located in those communities that suffer job loss from the demise of fossil fuels.
Federal Labor may be reluctant to move from its electoral commitment to the 43% target recalling how the Gillard Government proved susceptible to political attack over its formal agreement with the Greens and the breach of Gillard’s electoral promise that there would be no carbon tax under a government that she led.
On the other hand, Federal Labor should not want to get caught lagging too far behind the real changes in public opinion regarding the urgency and desirability for greater action on climate change.
Labor could navigate a course between these two conflicting political pressures by offering to legislate an initial target of 43% emissions cut by 2030 but by agreeing to revision of the target at set intervals and by ensuring that both scientific and economic opinion has an institutionalised role within the legislation in making recommendations as to the targets.
Moreover, the legislation should do more than just establish targets. It should establish a legislative framework setting out how reductions in emissions (including beyond the 43% target) could be achieved.
The Victorian Government has led the responses to climate change in ways that need to be rolled out nationally with its Climate Change Act 2017.
The CCA:
- establishes a long-term emissions reduction target of net zero by 2050.
- requires five-yearly interim targets, to keep Victoria on track to meet this long-term target.
- introduces a new set of policy objectives and an updated set of guiding principles to embed climate change in government decision making.
- requires the government to develop a Climate Change Strategy every five years, which will set out how Victoria will meet its targets and adapt to the impacts of climate change (from 2020);
- requires Adaptation Action Plans for key systems that are either vulnerable to the impacts of climate change or essential to ensure Victoria is prepared (from 2021).
- establishes a pledging model to reduce emissions from the government’s own operations and from across the economy (from 2020);
- establishes a system of periodic reporting to provide transparency, and accountability, and ensure the community remains informed.
The 2017-2020 Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan made under the Act will:
- build a detailed understanding of Victoria’s exposure to climate change risks and impacts.
- catalyse partnerships for integrated and effective responses to climate change.
- tackle immediate priorities to reduce climate change risks.
In addition, Sustainability Victoria already has campaigns that are demonstrating to Victorians how they can take action to mitigate and adapt to climate change:
- TAKE2- a pledge program that offers to show every Victorian how to take action on climate change.
- The Zero Net Carbon Homes pilot program aims to develop sustainably designed residential homes in Victoria and provide technical and marketing expertise to builders to facilitate the development, marketing, and sales of such homes.
- The Love Food Hate Waste program aims to help households reduce food waste at home.
- Grants and funding programs that seek to improve Victoria’s waste and recycling systems, encourage more efficient use of energy, and help the state move towards a circular economy model.
These types of programs should be rolled out nationally. This will require training and accreditation of personnel to deliver the programs, through new green jobs. The aim should be to proactively help in these areas for each Australian household, business, and school community.
Negotiations will be necessary for legislation to pass through the Senate irrespective of whether Labor gets to govern in its own right. So Labor will need to negotiate with both the Greens and the Teals around the length of intervals for review of the targets.