Over the last few days Russia has increased its missile attacks for the first time in weeks and its largest air attack in two months.
Ukrainian forces have been training broad and have recently received further equipment from NATO.
But in any case, it is still too muddy to do much by land. Ukraine has had a lot of rain. There is video footage of trenches filled with about 3 feet of water. Both sides are likely to wait until June, when the land will have dried out, before commencing further substantial land based offensives.
Ukraine will likely aim to breach the defensive lines Russia has established on the Eastern Side of the Dnipro. It won’t be easy. First, they must cross the river, then cross ditches, then dragon’s teeth (anti-tank obstacles) and then confront parapets from where Russian troops will be firing upon them.
If they succeed in breaching the lines, without losing too many casualties, they will likely then try and push further South to isolate the Crimean Peninsula, interrupting Russian supply lines and forcing the Russians to use a single bridge that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland.
There is some concern that Crimea is of such importance to Putin that if the Ukrainians do succeed in putting Crimea under serious threat, this could lead Putin to more dangerous escalation steps.
If Ukraine wrests back Crimea militarily, the US council on Foreign Relations has pointed to the complication that “hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have settled in the region during the nine years of occupation. (A Finnish study puts the number above 350,000; Ukrainian estimates exceed 600,000, roughly a third of the population.) Reflecting this transformation, some Ukrainian officials have begun to call for large-scale expulsions and “detoxification” of Crimea—a process with real potential to put Kyiv at odds with Western governments.”
But pro-Trump commentator retired coronel Douglas MacGregor says that Ukraine will not succeed in breaching Russian lines or isolating Crimea. He says once the ground dries out and Russian ground forces attack, their operations will result in an unambiguous victory. From then on, Ukraine negotiating with Russia will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
If Ukraine to make substantial military progress this year increased cracks in support from the West are more likely to emerge and the war will likely run into the 2024 US presidential election campaign.
If Ukraine wins, or makes substantial progress, Joe Biden, or other Democrat party nominee, would celebrate the Biden administration’s involvement, and emphasise how it’s foreign policies steered Ukraine towards a big win.
But American presidents have not necessarily been able to translate war into electoral support. In 1992, then-President George H. W. Bush was defeated in his quest for re-election despite attaining victory in the Gulf War a year earlier. In 2004, George W Bush only got re-elected in a close call despite public opinion being widely supportive of the Iraq War at the time.
The Republican Party is divided on the Ukraine war.
Senate Leader Mitch McConnell supports the Biden administration’s ‘as long as it takes’ policy. In December 2022 McConnell said, “providing assistance for Ukrainians to defeat the Russians is the number one priority for the United States right now according to most Republicans.”
But Donald Trump has a different view.
He claims Putin would never have invaded has he still been President. He has accused Biden of bringing the US to the brink of WWIII and says he could resolve the conflict in 24 hours (but won’t say how until he is re-elected President). However it is not hard to imagine what he would do. He would force Zelensky to the negotiating table by threatening further US aid if he doesn’t co-operate and would use his relationship with Putin to push him towards a deal. It would almost certainly be a deal in which Russia at least gets to retain Crimea. In 2016, Trump stated that “the people of Crimea, from what I’ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.”
No matter what the outcome Trump will claim that the Biden administration has wasted billions of dollars on the war in Ukraine, money that could otherwise have been used to ‘Make America great again”. This criticism is likely to cut through with Trump’s rusted on base but may be more widely effective if Ukraine fairs poorly in its counter offensive this year.
Trump’s main primary opponent Ron DeSantis initially appeared to side with Trump’s view on Ukraine characterising the war as “a territorial dispute”. He subsequently walked back on these comments saying that Ukrainians “have the right to that territory”, adding: “If I could snap my fingers, I’d give it back to Ukraine 100%.”
But neither is DeSantis lining up with the ‘as long as it takes’ views of McConnell. He has stated that it would be a mistake for the US to escalate it involvement with “more weapons or troops” and has criticised the administration for “effectively a blank-check policy with no clear strategic objective identified.”
Despite his legal woes Trump is $1.50 favourite with bookmakers to win the Republican nomination, with DeSantis at $3.75. Third favourite Nikki Hailey, at $23 to win the nomination, previously served as Trump’s U.N. ambassador. She has stated “the war in Ukraine and Russia is not about Ukraine, it’s about freedom. And it’s a war we have to win.” And she said she supports giving Ukraine the equipment it “needs to win, not money but equipment.”
Former Vice President Mike Pence, a $41 chance for the nomination with bookmakers has stated it is “absolutely essential” America stays in the fight.
Even more than in 2016 Putin will be hoping for a Trump victory.